Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T12:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 12:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 12:50 UTC
Open price
$66,582.59
Close price
$66,498.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66582.590000 and closed at 66498.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 16 · 12:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 12:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 12:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:45 ↑ 12:00 ↑ 12:15 ↑ 12:30 ↓ — now 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 12:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T12:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 12:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
12:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HPG0wRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 12:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.8%
Down 50.2%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66547.1310 sigma=139.8202 z=0.0672 p_up=0.4980

Commitment hash
09651dec6713c729da6aae7cccc149696951a066933ed78893af2a77e4cfe0f2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
12:20:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.514 -1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCJy6wkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 12:20:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.7%
Down 49.3%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4525 edge=0.0127 sigma_short=0.001387 sigma_long=0.001750 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5070

Commitment hash
e7bdae1b8ea3e3691862f6418de581fd85934a132e3ef59cbc2c71e07f701766
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
12:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtYe7oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 12:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.27%
Down 48.73%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000173 sigma=0.001667 score=0.4525 p_up=0.5127

Commitment hash
5bd7fc91e4901eb0c85e34e885f583369f50119102d630050543aae1622d08bd