Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T13:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 13:50 UTC
Open price
$66,019.19
Close price
$66,128.93

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66019.190000 and closed at 66128.930000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 13:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 13:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ — now 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↓ 14:30 ↑ 14:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 13:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLixOgwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.96%
Down 47.04%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66557.9190 sigma=139.6179 z=-2.5094 p_up=0.5296

Commitment hash
c91c6dbf70140a0509ccd299ffdc9df86d0ad8a8995e4a7b5a5c5fab380a801b
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
13:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.519 -1.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtY07oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.04%
Down 50.96%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6673 edge=-0.0175 sigma_short=0.001298 sigma_long=0.001658 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4904

Commitment hash
29b635f437444f99da1337ac0a8cd87bd5faf3a1af5db5a7d1b4923d35b17989
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.536 -3.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCqEMwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.25%
Down 51.75%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000275 sigma=0.001799 score=-0.6673 p_up=0.4825

Commitment hash
24d68052dc0b68d6ce0e6d4f2975ea5535c984865e01926cdd3b6984a41947cc