Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 14:20 UTC
Open price
$66,052.01
Close price
$66,027.23

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66052.010000 and closed at 66027.230000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 16 · 13:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ — now 14:15 ↓ 14:30 ↑ 14:45 ↓ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 14:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCyW1w3qMl598
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.2%
Down 52.8%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000610 sigma=0.001590 score=-1.6713 p_up=0.4720

Commitment hash
2f352702d93bef6f71a4939d012ecc8451eee5604b685bae5c43edb70fc8252e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
13:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhmGJojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.46%
Down 51.54%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.6713 edge=-0.0280 sigma_short=0.001605 sigma_long=0.001661 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4846

Commitment hash
cd80adfb3510b4fbd4da5707e62b50a972944604478258335cbbaf60cccb9cac
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.559 -5.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5CvONDOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.86%
Down 47.14%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66506.6775 sigma=200.9951 z=-1.8794 p_up=0.5286

Commitment hash
0eed3b80a2c40a4586c1d1c3cafad0f9fef05c2686eb05e80ef75e1bc6e51518