Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T14:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 14:35 UTC
Open price
$66,027.23
Close price
$65,553.07

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66027.230000 and closed at 65553.070000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 16 · 14:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 14:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↓ — now 14:30 ↑ 14:45 ↓ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T14:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 14:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
14:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgs5gmwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.25%
Down 52.75%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000564 sigma=0.001561 score=-1.5745 p_up=0.4725

Commitment hash
a553f5e214ba1b68a6cdaefb23a9b9cb18eec950a0f9e756779455611651dbcc
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
14:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iad6DEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.49%
Down 51.51%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.5745 edge=-0.0275 sigma_short=0.001615 sigma_long=0.001668 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4849

Commitment hash
ac0d685b803788078e5153eaa67d396ea0e21df064b60acca90df21558d68dfe
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
14:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcperVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.9%
Down 47.1%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66464.2970 sigma=203.0264 z=-2.0308 p_up=0.5290

Commitment hash
38585ee7f332f6a7c5e94d172b4ec1622dae17df3cfad695e2dce4f1221e95d9