Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T03:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$65,797.98
Close price
$65,851.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65797.980000 and closed at 65851.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 17 · 03:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 03:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ — now 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T03:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 04:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.493 +0.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHRvdD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.36%
Down 49.64%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65793.3180 sigma=109.3506 z=-0.1218 p_up=0.5036

Commitment hash
12080dd762b3d68182b5ef891aece3d09a382c0d1dbb3a51c227708c1a7b1e43
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.493 +0.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysKALw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.34%
Down 49.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000048 sigma=0.001837 score=0.1128 p_up=0.5034

Commitment hash
18974dfaadf67b25b5f674ea23dd65fe7583bf9c4c185f175566d94559eae5e7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 17
03:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.498 +0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T38Zo7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.12%
Down 49.88%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.1128 edge=0.0034 sigma_short=0.002329 sigma_long=0.001742 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5012

Commitment hash
f41bd49b70892c1ce1d00218a1cd554d91684a1d79f3705545108643bbcdb7cc