Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T04:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 04:20 UTC
Open price
$65,852.00
Close price
$65,839.34

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65852.000000 and closed at 65839.340000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 17 · 03:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ — now 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 04:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.500 0.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc7Q4VnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.98%
Down 50.02%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65797.1850 sigma=108.0721 z=0.0074 p_up=0.4998

Commitment hash
c3225bf3dbf104b4014297d7c275d90d50eb4fbd6cd434035150c344f82745cc
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 17
03:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgs525wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.04%
Down 49.96%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0343 edge=0.0010 sigma_short=0.002278 sigma_long=0.001742 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5004

Commitment hash
dc0fb3a2405823db5f79eff0a1928093b8a05ea4bc4ec960773c9d2eeea9b051
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhmvLojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.1%
Down 49.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000014 sigma=0.001827 score=0.0343 p_up=0.5010

Commitment hash
86f8e66c4d8548ac9f9f28a6826d961784148819ea8b913519e8362879ce7a31