Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-09T11:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 11:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 9 · 12:05 UTC
Open price
$62,786.00
Close price
$62,711.12

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 62786.000000 and closed at 62711.120000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 9 · 10:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 9 · 11:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 9 · 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 08:00 ↓ 09:00 ↓ 10:00 ↑ 11:00 ↓ — now 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 15:00 ↓ 16:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-09 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-09T11:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 9 · 12:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 9
10:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.450 +5.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsl5BVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 10:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.42%
Down 52.58%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.001038 sigma=0.003508 score=-1.2894 p_up=0.4742

Commitment hash
1d5cfcd53d24c26397ce022a785fc707e2f943c02479623c868130136d7894f9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 9
10:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.460 +4.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCGddoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 10:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.94%
Down 52.06%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.2894 edge=-0.0258 sigma_short=0.003919 sigma_long=0.005300 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4794

Commitment hash
b59cc7ec8866d2a05cc4ed6eaf5bf69cf424d22d1991f008079dbf8b17f4504d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 9
10:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTKxqwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 10:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.68%
Down 47.32%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63255.6820 sigma=375.4130 z=-1.4392 p_up=0.5268

Commitment hash
16107573951b9c52a07299e798b77fb0ebc5f5a8fdf280734ef41c7d4339947e