Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-11T02:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 11 · 03:05 UTC
Open price
$62,206.01
Close price
$62,148.00

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 62206.010000 and closed at 62148.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 11 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 11 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 11 · 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 23:00 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 01:00 ↑ 02:00 ↓ — now 03:00 ↑ 04:00 ↑ 05:00 ↓ 06:00 ↑ 07:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-11 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-11T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 11 · 03:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
01:35:05
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh45eV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 01:35:05 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.16%
Down 50.84%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=61698.1895 sigma=393.2904 z=0.2894 p_up=0.4916

Commitment hash
d012a4e34b27cbb237b5e24ab5045d06b25ac13b321503b344fcbfec523fb5a1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 11
01:35:06
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4RzVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 01:35:06 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.54%
Down 49.46%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3408 edge=0.0098 sigma_short=0.004444 sigma_long=0.004737 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5054

Commitment hash
dbff0f2fc5f9067425f46559af6ea56736bba5f9bba13f6e9b325e3054aaa79e
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
01:35:05
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHdGxDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 01:35:05 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.98%
Down 49.02%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000385 sigma=0.004927 score=0.3408 p_up=0.5098

Commitment hash
f0abe7e006364489fb1b097f72f877c3770fc7e70e6ab2990a569529276340f8