Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-11T18:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 11 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$63,644.18
Close price
$63,461.12

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63644.180000 and closed at 63461.120000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+1.5
Opens
Jun 11 · 17:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 11 · 18:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 11 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 18:00 ↓ — now 19:00 ↑ 20:00 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↓ 23:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-11 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-11T18:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 11 · 19:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
17:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7ir9EoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 17:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.62%
Down 50.38%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=62511.3670 sigma=563.0198 z=0.1263 p_up=0.4962

Commitment hash
a76de5ac78ed2c1f7320985cf0f1a510ebd23269d56502a5abf175a9b176c32a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 11
17:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tjlWDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 17:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.12%
Down 47.88%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.3876 edge=0.0265 sigma_short=0.002601 sigma_long=0.004323 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5212

Commitment hash
73f3aff7bd09f36d206a0ede53f6ec1fa9cfecb2827113ad91fde86a29cdfcd6
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
17:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCJ1JoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 17:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.65%
Down 47.35%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001042 sigma=0.003272 score=1.3876 p_up=0.5265

Commitment hash
12a776445992d1c7c4aea23effd2655e91157b4d49ff2f03a811492b0b8d62b1