Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-11T16:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 11 · 17:05 UTC
Open price
$62,749.44
Close price
$62,582.45

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 62749.440000 and closed at 62582.450000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 11 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 11 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 11 · 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 13:00 ↑ 14:00 ↓ 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ — now 17:00 ↑ 18:00 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 20:00 ↓ 21:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-11 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-11T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 11 · 17:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
15:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHjnNwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 15:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.59%
Down 51.41%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=62432.1700 sigma=590.5321 z=0.5111 p_up=0.4859

Commitment hash
e95a726c6c7c72297fa0369e4c583fd6926fc20cc2e3f749b02d400f8152bb57
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 11
15:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpriZ6GoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 15:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.56%
Down 48.44%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7779 edge=0.0195 sigma_short=0.002675 sigma_long=0.004319 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5156

Commitment hash
2aa2b6b786b1702a90ffa0d262169ca6b8c090e4a110c9339169ae82b846d523
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
15:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.540 -4.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SxRjolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 15:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.95%
Down 48.05%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000668 sigma=0.003745 score=0.7779 p_up=0.5195

Commitment hash
853afdd071a0772df7760e55fe21cffcc6cda19a286645fa81ed47de8a935bf2