Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-11T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 11 · 15:05 UTC
Open price
$63,077.71
Close price
$62,734.02

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63077.710000 and closed at 62734.020000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 11 · 13:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 11 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 11 · 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 11:00 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↑ 14:00 ↓ — now 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 18:00 ↓ 19:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-11 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 11 · 15:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
13:35:06
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.452 +4.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4TxLKo7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 13:35:06 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.54%
Down 52.46%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=62334.1900 sigma=582.7180 z=1.1598 p_up=0.4754

Commitment hash
dce6c02447623a11fc1d835ab97ab022536cc8ca9d216765e50bb230aa528e74
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 11
13:35:06
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.539 -3.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTg19VRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 13:35:06 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.91%
Down 48.09%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.0918 edge=0.0239 sigma_short=0.003118 sigma_long=0.004357 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5191

Commitment hash
5370aca5156617b97d45646e446b52f627b9e14b210e1815353e6696d6f0fded
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
13:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.549 -4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJH6LND3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 13:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-11 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.39%
Down 47.61%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000876 sigma=0.003497 score=1.0918 p_up=0.5239

Commitment hash
0b6893162d5c7cdd310bc97b1dfa06788e6bcbf88477199fa6e9731e29236c52