Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-12T05:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 06:05 UTC
Open price
$63,700.00
Close price
$63,358.20

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63700.000000 and closed at 63358.200000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 04:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 05:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 02:00 ↑ 03:00 ↓ 04:00 ↑ 05:00 ↓ — now 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↑ 09:00 ↑ 10:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-12T05:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 06:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.462 +3.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHdP9DOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.06%
Down 51.94%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63263.4755 sigma=338.7759 z=0.7714 p_up=0.4806

Commitment hash
683742366cab0d95a2e364d8e9e5fe50fe864534ad16c962574d2253eac01391
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
04:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh4QWV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.02%
Down 48.98%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4542 edge=0.0128 sigma_short=0.002383 sigma_long=0.004640 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5102

Commitment hash
3cf5615f63914231fb5b3f03e771e8734dfa68b217dad23a4b786fbcbeb433c4
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4i20MDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.28%
Down 48.72%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000472 sigma=0.004527 score=0.4542 p_up=0.5128

Commitment hash
07b75114f0191b51a6f95390429e7741c0bf5766badd5b1d6ffb6af3fc956dde