Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-12T10:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 11:05 UTC
Open price
$63,752.93
Close price
$63,702.01

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63752.930000 and closed at 63702.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 09:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 10:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↑ 09:00 ↑ 10:00 ↓ — now 11:00 ↑ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↑ 15:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-12T10:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 11:05:03 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
09:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cGXLDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.85%
Down 51.15%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63336.4140 sigma=333.9238 z=0.4025 p_up=0.4885

Commitment hash
2b066c0195a31e9c9ac1dcfe959d7cbcce12b2a2abf037281288fb15cb6ef1e9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
09:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SxX7olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.45%
Down 49.55%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2821 edge=0.0082 sigma_short=0.003722 sigma_long=0.004306 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5045

Commitment hash
7952405b35a1d591a03f0e7612659f2ba477ec89e58385b7afa35d3976d3d7f1
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
09:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLiJR0wy92enrk
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.82%
Down 49.18%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000327 sigma=0.005054 score=0.2821 p_up=0.5082

Commitment hash
88856e65724eb8df636418d6d6e2a456635bd7669b55a3fd2a291f84eef4c4e6