Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-12T11:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 12:05 UTC
Open price
$63,702.01
Close price
$63,766.01

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63702.010000 and closed at 63766.010000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 10:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 11:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 08:00 ↑ 09:00 ↑ 10:00 ↓ 11:00 ↑ — now 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↑ 15:00 ↓ 16:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-12T11:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 12:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:35:04
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7irn0oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:35:04 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.9%
Down 48.1%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000848 sigma=0.004939 score=0.7484 p_up=0.5190

Commitment hash
611def6ca17fd234ff03a60e7c57a22a4371916a8143b173afd4c5f4c338b5ba
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
10:35:04
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngHbR6VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:35:04 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.05%
Down 48.95%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7484 edge=0.0190 sigma_short=0.003923 sigma_long=0.004286 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5105

Commitment hash
6ff39ea7c23ed4b55e0705e8f11807b8fc0ce974c974437c9bd2ba28c075637d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:35:04
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tj7LDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:35:04 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.57%
Down 52.43%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63370.1820 sigma=340.1310 z=1.1253 p_up=0.4757

Commitment hash
92c6eb729ad07a6ba08739d23a557bd33fb5e41c31a323496f868a5d5b3d3093