Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-12T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Open price
$63,229.10
Close price
$63,999.99

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63229.100000 and closed at 63999.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 13:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 11:00 ↑ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↑ — now 15:00 ↓ 16:00 ↑ 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↓ 19:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-12T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 15:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HqbGwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.72%
Down 49.28%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63513.5630 sigma=195.9531 z=-0.2452 p_up=0.5072

Commitment hash
4f5c85324d74a75bd2259a4154becf36fd4151ad1bdee2153913aee4f90fd3f4
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
13:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCZYgwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.68%
Down 50.32%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1938 edge=-0.0057 sigma_short=0.003944 sigma_long=0.004341 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4968

Commitment hash
dbe99e5fc64c1c648c5d4fc464794a1296fa7a7eb9498021c4b4dd5ea14b1a6c
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtlxxoXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.43%
Down 50.57%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000148 sigma=0.003328 score=-0.1938 p_up=0.4943

Commitment hash
33cf8641f2f3aaf811fa5f70c01b0c3620e7f4fdfa06d32e6784b78740ff18ce