Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T11:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 11:50 UTC
Open price
$1,676.21
Close price
$1,675.21

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1676.210000 and closed at 1675.210000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 11:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 11:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:45 ↓ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ — now 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T11:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 11:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysg8Mw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.1%
Down 51.9%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1669.7565 sigma=8.7929 z=0.7476 p_up=0.4810

Commitment hash
19ac189b8920b20fc373b1c58e3df763bee1ec5fd4b3e65409df63946f9a1094
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
11:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJH633D3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.3%
Down 48.7%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.0710 edge=0.0237 sigma_short=0.001786 sigma_long=0.002256 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5130

Commitment hash
575d7f1cf05cec5a50e2147f4f09bd8a95d7d718f3bf9e09f865ca282f2f1da3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.549 -4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS8mZwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.37%
Down 47.63%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000505 sigma=0.002056 score=1.0710 p_up=0.5237

Commitment hash
7fcd2c78d4657214264d0b830fff100d19e50e07bb34e911fa6c1d84eb892bcc