Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T19:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 19:20 UTC
Open price
$1,666.86
Close price
$1,669.22

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1666.860000 and closed at 1669.220000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 12 · 18:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 19:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 19:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ — now 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 19:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 19:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.474 +2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTRNYw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.34%
Down 48.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000446 sigma=0.004059 score=0.4788 p_up=0.5134

Commitment hash
2718c53781c6c2accc383bc1ececd460a8689461b0142f0157127328c5124b01
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
18:50:19
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHkLnoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:50:19 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.07%
Down 48.93%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4788 edge=0.0134 sigma_short=0.001345 sigma_long=0.003130 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5107

Commitment hash
9132eb05fb8dad66c6e2c0bba73d28ed4b5382e308fd48fd4c789b9354d96fc6
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:50:19
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.504 -0.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HkvKD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:50:19 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.78%
Down 50.22%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1671.1630 sigma=7.3582 z=0.0730 p_up=0.4978

Commitment hash
079a4061173213c7c3443c8baa8e1895e91447bdea552c7a420844b1e939c7b7