Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T18:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$1,671.70
Close price
$1,666.87

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1671.700000 and closed at 1666.870000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 18:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 18:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ — now 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T18:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 19:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
18:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.516 -1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Gl39jP8konj6s7gpoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.79%
Down 49.21%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3434 edge=0.0099 sigma_short=0.002326 sigma_long=0.003119 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5079

Commitment hash
09d21245ed3d949b30d624a5f6e95d4bdb0ee6e08d34b647cce314ff65d7cd51
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHLX9wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.99%
Down 49.01%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000317 sigma=0.004020 score=0.3434 p_up=0.5099

Commitment hash
712eaa08a9afd6316e9581ef2412d8c5c76c1c1f8d55ff0b29905419149c7398
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.525 -2.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpriGr8oPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.21%
Down 48.79%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1670.4285 sigma=7.9753 z=-0.4286 p_up=0.5121

Commitment hash
a871358ed194010bb4e810613a6175843bd8473d197116646bf33ec698ef64f4