Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T18:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 18:20 UTC
Open price
$1,668.84
Close price
$1,667.69

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1668.840000 and closed at 1667.690000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 12 · 17:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 18:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↓ — now 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T18:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 18:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
17:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.503 -0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFELvw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.14%
Down 49.86%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0849 edge=0.0025 sigma_short=0.003873 sigma_long=0.003238 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5014

Commitment hash
39bb56ec91fe9a3a2114a55b0329c29561ca3559faf0a7508b3eb196b4c98390
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
17:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHkBnoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.25%
Down 49.75%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000082 sigma=0.004231 score=0.0849 p_up=0.5025

Commitment hash
7a85cf6a7431d5646e5a6a51da6873d1ce565cc4ebaa36608f63c9cbe3098967
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
17:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.508 -0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgC1aOV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.41%
Down 49.59%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1670.2640 sigma=8.0348 z=-0.1386 p_up=0.5041

Commitment hash
6582a6e64100b13186a9416c55a49f0dfc15b61e7f85a5088571b0e6c6fb44da