Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T05:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 05:20 UTC
Open price
$1,677.95
Close price
$1,677.91

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1677.950000 and closed at 1677.910000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 14 · 04:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 05:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↑ 05:00 ↓ — now 05:15 ↓ 05:30 ↑ 05:45 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T05:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 05:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
04:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHkpGoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 04:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.57%
Down 51.43%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000121 sigma=0.001016 score=-0.5204 p_up=0.4857

Commitment hash
0cd76e0a407a89ed83651950740d63a3283b1c70db87f005045af17e86ef1493
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
04:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFE9Ow5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.85%
Down 51.15%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.5204 edge=-0.0143 sigma_short=0.000872 sigma_long=0.001444 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4885

Commitment hash
c74e4cfe4f8d19a21014c69003a0234ad8bf81a08d6a044d5fb0afd9ca0d32dd
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
04:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.561 -6.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgC1d6V4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.94%
Down 47.06%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1682.1965 sigma=2.1329 z=-2.2910 p_up=0.5294

Commitment hash
b85f4705d833c6789fc8ef008e1e2dc18edf6c47cba4d73035aeae6856ef9831