Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T20:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 21:05 UTC
Open price
$1,671.55
Close price
$1,670.48

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1671.550000 and closed at 1670.480000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 20:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 20:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↑ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ — now 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↑ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑ 22:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T20:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 21:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAAQDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.3%
Down 52.7%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1664.0360 sigma=2.1230 z=1.4762 p_up=0.4730

Commitment hash
16c563ff38dca273bed74df1987ab213fd9096dbf0d22b59d4a8c848c0ea197d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
20:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.513 -1.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxxJV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.66%
Down 49.34%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4255 edge=0.0120 sigma_short=0.001145 sigma_long=0.001494 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5066

Commitment hash
974b3833b328f3fc0e3b53ddafed528a9a8511f7579003d26dc9c8561060f7e6
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.524 -2.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXXPDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.2%
Down 48.8%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000131 sigma=0.001347 score=0.4255 p_up=0.5120

Commitment hash
1628c2fe4f7128d8f69ec6a471d64fbf6996e309b114fcf09915f28304d037ba