Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T22:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 23:05 UTC
Open price
$1,725.87
Close price
$1,722.62

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1725.870000 and closed at 1722.620000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 22:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 22:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:00 ↑ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ — now 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T22:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 23:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYdqVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.12%
Down 52.88%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1677.8785 sigma=22.3618 z=1.9355 p_up=0.4712

Commitment hash
a712dd5f73e04d01aa2642c5e7b341f7036cd3840901743e80ce6eacaa6c10e0
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
22:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQWAwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.0%
Down 49.0%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.8295 edge=0.0285 sigma_short=0.005276 sigma_long=0.003329 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5100

Commitment hash
eb0171c46a56e7b1a4c950b1cc43c9002b0e6f683503fd6bf4ddb16c65e8a2dc
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.559 -5.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01girK4w1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.85%
Down 47.15%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001766 sigma=0.004207 score=1.8295 p_up=0.5285

Commitment hash
313490d87178f2b69c7d62c634c82a30416b08b03acf391f6b05698c64b6730e