Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T02:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 02:50 UTC
Open price
$1,720.90
Close price
$1,719.76

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1720.900000 and closed at 1719.760000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 15 · 02:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 02:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 02:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:45 ↓ 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↑ 02:30 ↓ — now 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 02:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T02:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 02:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLjkVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.83%
Down 50.17%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1720.3345 sigma=6.0935 z=0.0551 p_up=0.4983

Commitment hash
5ab1d8cb263f0cf0eb5e614e70b7eaa35c347165d049952c1c74753fccb39035
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
02:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.522 -2.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPB4or79GXqN
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.09%
Down 48.91%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7960 edge=0.0199 sigma_short=0.003351 sigma_long=0.003592 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5109

Commitment hash
6d41ec56d85355960823fd29acb4b13bc53ab02676dae9b2bdab516c7f3d5138
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.540 -4.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTGxpVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.99%
Down 48.01%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000605 sigma=0.003316 score=0.7960 p_up=0.5199

Commitment hash
b0c9758953acc09f80dfd53e340ab3dfad3a12f8fd0a4a63f53deae8439c8155