Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T04:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 04:35 UTC
Open price
$1,718.59
Close price
$1,718.83

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1718.590000 and closed at 1718.830000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 15 · 04:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 04:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↓ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ — now 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T04:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 04:35:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.493 +0.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cykPDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.36%
Down 49.64%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1721.2615 sigma=4.0276 z=-0.1195 p_up=0.5036

Commitment hash
fbae774362f2d7dfac4c20b9160f18fb2385e74f189bec75d0f483f93a8e7c74
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
04:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYOgolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.57%
Down 50.43%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1794 edge=-0.0053 sigma_short=0.002683 sigma_long=0.003587 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4957

Commitment hash
f045158fc0d57f8d2c0c6718c11ab9475a44e719694c8fb03a72a67a3cfa33df
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLi20ywy92enrk
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.47%
Down 50.53%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000111 sigma=0.002702 score=-0.1794 p_up=0.4947

Commitment hash
7444e7acbdcd1428ea3e4c225ccec0af3b0799558a025207356a168728e15743