Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T21:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 21:35 UTC
Open price
$1,820.35
Close price
$1,815.18

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1820.350000 and closed at 1815.180000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 21:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 21:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:30 ↓ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ — now 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T21:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 21:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
21:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.451 +4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLOYVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.48%
Down 52.52%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000775 sigma=0.002769 score=-1.2194 p_up=0.4748

Commitment hash
bba15f7ae75effa2b3c7682faa4dc3f3d42a217a3e8f52a1fe47066ff16343e6
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
21:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.473 +2.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCXqXw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.61%
Down 51.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.2194 edge=-0.0252 sigma_short=0.003369 sigma_long=0.004276 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4861

Commitment hash
0881452c7ea1cd83e97ad805f95b44a173af950f08fec9229eaf2ab3e36cce28
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
21:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPA1or79GXqN
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.77%
Down 47.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1829.8870 sigma=8.0640 z=-1.6043 p_up=0.5277

Commitment hash
e586b8f9ac05e0f88a286757c4850a32eefee092bdaced7cdb51aab7e4b815ae