Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T20:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 20:50 UTC
Open price
$1,821.60
Close price
$1,819.23

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1821.600000 and closed at 1819.230000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.1
Opens
Jun 15 · 20:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 20:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↓ — now 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T20:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 20:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
20:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.508 -0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKRAVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.4%
Down 49.6%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2479 edge=0.0073 sigma_short=0.003365 sigma_long=0.004273 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5040

Commitment hash
950ffb16c2bca3e183ffd7af17be0e615f39cf581111f57de1476de15e62c2eb
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
20:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.515 -1.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc3Z2VnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.73%
Down 49.27%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000217 sigma=0.003818 score=0.2479 p_up=0.5073

Commitment hash
14c75b6ad395f805bf75c1322deaf3920aedac4ad890fc6d61baa6fc73866dd5
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
20:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.545 -4.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsblkwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.18%
Down 47.82%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1831.6105 sigma=8.1003 z=-0.9235 p_up=0.5218

Commitment hash
45c5848a8635135d3fa7d39ff0101b647078cdb92da553cfa0a3154fa8bcba83