Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T20:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 20:20 UTC
Open price
$1,821.88
Close price
$1,824.13

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1821.880000 and closed at 1824.130000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 15 · 19:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 20:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:15 ↓ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑ — now 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↓ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T20:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 20:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngH1M4oy18Alen
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.42%
Down 48.58%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000432 sigma=0.003671 score=0.5131 p_up=0.5142

Commitment hash
e836c015b095937cb2efad8f78126c131283d16bcf2b400795c7bba233f1ead3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
19:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFbzgw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.13%
Down 48.87%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.5131 edge=0.0142 sigma_short=0.003103 sigma_long=0.004180 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5113

Commitment hash
08348ff03393356c5ea1c8d5e5c7a1ba5fe449a355b0814205a4c5803845457c
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCmvnV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.43%
Down 49.57%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1830.8350 sigma=9.1810 z=-0.1443 p_up=0.5043

Commitment hash
f6e6c12b24c5412b90d61499db5a08b57a340fbe3cdda569c083f4cf524687e5