Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T23:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 23:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 23:50 UTC
Open price
$1,789.67
Close price
$1,791.05

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1789.670000 and closed at 1791.050000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 23:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 23:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ — now 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T23:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 23:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
23:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYpdolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.86%
Down 47.14%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1815.5055 sigma=13.4689 z=-1.8580 p_up=0.5286

Commitment hash
1d419a230a42e3f24a3ef2d275c61e2326364599379ad531dc87abdda20e4189
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
23:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.530 -3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHq2WwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.51%
Down 51.49%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.4775 edge=-0.0270 sigma_short=0.003040 sigma_long=0.003977 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4851

Commitment hash
0785e96ce329b4d934ce57daaac72a43f36a68c28220d35d48992f4e51cf8084
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
23:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.556 -5.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyJ7DZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.3%
Down 52.7%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.001127 sigma=0.003325 score=-1.4775 p_up=0.4730

Commitment hash
2d69fe2330dd2383de61cdc062117f623db57c94fc4dba8a52529371d5c35e4b