Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T10:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 11:05 UTC
Open price
$1,678.48
Close price
$1,673.13

Binance ETHUSDT 1h candle opened at 1678.480000 and closed at 1673.130000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 09:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 10:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 07:00 ↓ 08:00 ↓ 09:00 ↑ 10:00 ↓ — now 11:00 ↑ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 15:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T10:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 11:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
09:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.490 +1.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c3R7VmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 09:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.5%
Down 50.5%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000077 sigma=0.001984 score=-0.1682 p_up=0.4950

Commitment hash
6755396777cf59b3f67924d2402b6d509b0b99743fc7adcb41451cbd439cd9aa
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
09:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSGBRopr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 09:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.6%
Down 50.4%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1682 edge=-0.0050 sigma_short=0.000881 sigma_long=0.001974 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4960

Commitment hash
775b4cb115ea63676b2f5e4c8c5eb8b15eda6105b159e183c2d8a1d5027f40ad
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
09:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCmqBoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 09:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.53%
Down 47.47%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1679.3925 sigma=3.1022 z=-1.2290 p_up=0.5253

Commitment hash
876f122d8f041c92d7d85dad16a2f5e64a5549001e02fc4f622736e80bb6af45