Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T18:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 18:20 UTC
Open price
$63,865.45
Close price
$63,818.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63865.450000 and closed at 63818.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 17:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 18:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↑ 18:00 ↓ — now 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T18:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 18:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
17:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.480 +2.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4TrPZo7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.01%
Down 50.99%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63723.5790 sigma=303.4157 z=0.3442 p_up=0.4901

Commitment hash
1a5bd300c04c32d2ecf95e1de85003ef3c976702312c84b89c5949fafdf34d5d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
17:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTZ27VRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.61%
Down 49.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3883 edge=0.0111 sigma_short=0.002633 sigma_long=0.002681 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5061

Commitment hash
7f40a312a818dffc7c017acdfab7b82b00bf1f5bdbdf23496b70ba9f64c1fd1e
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
17:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.522 -2.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHgedD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 17:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.11%
Down 48.89%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000300 sigma=0.003365 score=0.3883 p_up=0.5111

Commitment hash
10fda7b129338a3ac5e7fab439d2a959d846b26d4b6e0bed22bc2f85df0956e0