Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T18:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 18:50 UTC
Open price
$63,782.61
Close price
$63,864.43

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63782.610000 and closed at 63864.430000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 12 · 18:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 18:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:45 ↑ 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ — now 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T18:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 18:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc4n4VnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.24%
Down 48.76%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000339 sigma=0.003355 score=0.4407 p_up=0.5124

Commitment hash
c573334a67cd1cfbf57997a78bbac89cc40a762a5d885211c3aa0362245d2c06
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
18:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmeJVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.68%
Down 49.32%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4407 edge=0.0124 sigma_short=0.002240 sigma_long=0.002644 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5068

Commitment hash
5ffc089bf2f2e5c5f274af69f9593603f5c989c77fb3f89484ab887819786ede
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
18:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsjg5wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.42%
Down 50.58%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63760.0775 sigma=293.3857 z=0.1974 p_up=0.4942

Commitment hash
4510b577d465316c37a0126b0ed40a7b8096de05c487b97c7d6b3c587d441815