Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-13T04:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 04:20 UTC
Open price
$63,532.00
Close price
$63,513.73

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63532.000000 and closed at 63513.730000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 13 · 03:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↓ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ — now 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-13T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 04:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
03:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.500 0.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgs9aYVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.02%
Down 49.98%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0098 edge=0.0003 sigma_short=0.001162 sigma_long=0.001107 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5002

Commitment hash
8446395e0d122afe5eed3ff7d0dc7e28b842e53b6b4d6b555d2358e39999ebc5
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
03:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFEkRw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.03%
Down 49.97%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000002 sigma=0.001003 score=0.0098 p_up=0.5003

Commitment hash
ddd5eaf49d0e1b8158603a74a4f3a643e85264b7bab11cf56ba59b82d5905fb1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
03:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gimyPw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.26%
Down 47.74%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63608.6845 sigma=105.6551 z=-0.9840 p_up=0.5226

Commitment hash
ba773fc79f64c1c14cb9e9ac4ba09dd466b58ded8c0581852f2d0fcb6ea9d922