Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-13T04:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 04:50 UTC
Open price
$63,542.01
Close price
$63,623.43

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63542.010000 and closed at 63623.430000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.1
Opens
Jun 13 · 04:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 04:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 04:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ — now 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↓ 05:30 ↑ 05:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 04:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-13T04:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 04:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
04:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SnMRolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 04:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.25%
Down 47.75%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63612.6750 sigma=101.3657 z=-0.9761 p_up=0.5225

Commitment hash
8a8734dede11bac6313ba69051037a55dfffa0dcbe0c97598a2e28fc758e7812
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
04:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.487 +1.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cA8RDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 04:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.65%
Down 49.35%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000050 sigma=0.000999 score=0.2185 p_up=0.5065

Commitment hash
e9154282d8d17b7a71864f64a7ded873d84b80ca4706d931f2aa1822063eaaf7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
04:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.493 +0.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHLKdwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 04:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.35%
Down 49.65%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2185 edge=0.0065 sigma_short=0.001019 sigma_long=0.001101 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5035

Commitment hash
6bfdd6973d2f0e24df4ca9a0ac788e7d5f3464517ef3f36b443e1b926635841b