Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T08:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 08:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 08:50 UTC
Open price
$64,485.85
Close price
$64,458.15

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64485.850000 and closed at 64458.150000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 14 · 08:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 08:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 08:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 07:45 ↑ 08:00 ↑ 08:15 ↑ 08:30 ↓ — now 08:45 ↓ 09:00 ↓ 09:15 ↓ 09:30 ↑ 09:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 08:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T08:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 08:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
08:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCP91oYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 08:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 08:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.48%
Down 51.52%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64389.0360 sigma=91.0066 z=0.5601 p_up=0.4848

Commitment hash
79107e4be947e4c478da6a1634597f16241392520921e1e16405370e5dc6b100
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
08:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.485 +1.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c0MLVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 08:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 08:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.23%
Down 50.77%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000074 sigma=0.001229 score=-0.2611 p_up=0.4923

Commitment hash
73463c301e3593a8c9adc3a2765b793da9d53fde550db34a3b45fc72e309f6f1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
08:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSxjWopr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 08:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 08:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.73%
Down 50.27%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2611 edge=-0.0077 sigma_short=0.001490 sigma_long=0.001020 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4973

Commitment hash
73de0121ce0e0ca2cf5e8449dc03fe8e468fcbe4e061a69d3c31d0b7895c9b96