Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T17:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 18:05 UTC
Open price
$63,843.69
Close price
$63,732.64

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63843.690000 and closed at 63732.640000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 14 · 17:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 17:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↓ — now 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↑ 19:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T17:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 18:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
17:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.452 +4.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLi2qmwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.55%
Down 52.45%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000373 sigma=0.001421 score=-1.1449 p_up=0.4755

Commitment hash
90ccf6fc5752312dc2490fd25661e46b9fdb2444ae936960129abd07a4922766
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
17:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.473 +2.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_40Q536YODN09HYjWwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.65%
Down 51.35%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.1449 edge=-0.0245 sigma_short=0.001355 sigma_long=0.001301 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4865

Commitment hash
00537407c8e888c916f54ce871c705cb964682a020cb44937893e74516f2a408
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
17:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.556 -5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtXyAoXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.73%
Down 47.27%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64141.5530 sigma=156.0507 z=-1.5271 p_up=0.5273

Commitment hash
4a4949fa551f7e22085b8661dcd35b2362d47ddb7bc287ea21bb6112d3679b4b