Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T03:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 03:20 UTC
Open price
$65,472.01
Close price
$65,727.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65472.010000 and closed at 65727.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 02:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 03:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 03:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↓ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ — now 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 03:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T03:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 03:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpri456oPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.1%
Down 48.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000208 sigma=0.002358 score=0.3848 p_up=0.5110

Commitment hash
b04a7ac697e5fb672c3b98523efab5beefc84ce173751a9022ab4e8ba4c19776
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
02:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.488 +1.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8ydDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.61%
Down 49.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3848 edge=0.0110 sigma_short=0.002356 sigma_long=0.002688 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5061

Commitment hash
1f9d3fabbb12ff6fd770654cdbe062aa869b8e8716298afbaf4c879fe712d6a2
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.507 -0.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6smbkoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.63%
Down 50.37%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65547.8845 sigma=182.4915 z=0.1237 p_up=0.4963

Commitment hash
c3c30cf1596b160b8aa73b922d90ec6d721cb90b777c27de69e9a6c60d2d57a6