Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T03:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 03:50 UTC
Open price
$65,726.01
Close price
$65,908.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65726.010000 and closed at 65908.010000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 15 · 03:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 03:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 03:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ — now 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 03:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T03:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 03:50:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
03:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHXK9D3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 03:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.9%
Down 48.1%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000411 sigma=0.002409 score=0.7443 p_up=0.5190

Commitment hash
b33076e1edb94f824e9b789a85d06cbe0cf1d5cb4e9ab479754abd90a53d9fa8
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
03:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTG9pVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 03:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.04%
Down 48.96%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7443 edge=0.0190 sigma_short=0.002473 sigma_long=0.002684 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5104

Commitment hash
5c4a7b61f80d5d64a8410637f7874aaa16e58ba98520d71d14cc2da44136624e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
03:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T2vao7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 03:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.77%
Down 52.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65586.1725 sigma=148.0337 z=0.9580 p_up=0.4777

Commitment hash
61479869728fe4c3785cb98e3b1de389f7b1bc9e959a04e333b70dcfb754a641