Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T15:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 15:50 UTC
Open price
$66,658.00
Close price
$66,910.03

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66658.000000 and closed at 66910.030000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 15 · 15:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 15:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↑ — now 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T15:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 15:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbR8wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.79%
Down 47.21%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000724 sigma=0.001915 score=1.6473 p_up=0.5279

Commitment hash
da07b71daa9d28531b877a4713637d6092466efc1129886b6356129c050d1892
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
15:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXAjDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.53%
Down 48.47%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.6473 edge=0.0279 sigma_short=0.001932 sigma_long=0.001728 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5153

Commitment hash
457c90f4e71709b71388b55b4fa0c2339b31f6f79de10b8e853185108ff10d28
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.545 -4.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcK6dVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.79%
Down 52.21%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66340.9860 sigma=302.0407 z=0.9413 p_up=0.4779

Commitment hash
5ebfd596c74efeb8288cd64094fa218e8e29e8ae76a9d8262233269a2e1dbeea