Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T15:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 16:05 UTC
Open price
$66,910.03
Close price
$67,292.14

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66910.030000 and closed at 67292.140000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 15 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 15:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↑ 15:45 ↑ — now 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T15:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 16:05:03 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxJLV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.77%
Down 47.23%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000712 sigma=0.001915 score=1.6209 p_up=0.5277

Commitment hash
d33234fddfa3d1c8c3c96b9859b6569d999e9054dcd4a76a93b384c359a45f7d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
15:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GC6bEwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.53%
Down 48.47%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.6209 edge=0.0277 sigma_short=0.001896 sigma_long=0.001704 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5153

Commitment hash
070e31b70bdcd67cd14ea771f568154200801c3d457306baa70d2b1de374140d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXuWapVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.73%
Down 52.27%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66388.1100 sigma=272.8981 z=0.9890 p_up=0.4773

Commitment hash
f9c798c250fe6d560473a8acf6db8a80fdec21aba8daf63570311896669b4f7a