Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T20:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 20:35 UTC
Open price
$66,558.00
Close price
$66,577.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66558.000000 and closed at 66577.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 15 · 20:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 20:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↑ — now 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↓ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T20:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 20:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
20:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.451 +4.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQydwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.53%
Down 47.47%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66881.5735 sigma=216.2644 z=-1.2356 p_up=0.5253

Commitment hash
f819c0ca126b8fb553a68dbc88c560e5b2765487ef16a044767f8c9ecd431001
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
20:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gC2rNoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.97%
Down 50.03%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0161 edge=-0.0005 sigma_short=0.001935 sigma_long=0.002133 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4997

Commitment hash
454280292324ab9366bbe0893420ab4b1143ea9b94df24afcab32c043daf9b7d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
20:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYM9VRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 20:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.95%
Down 50.05%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000009 sigma=0.002333 score=-0.0161 p_up=0.4995

Commitment hash
cd67b24021513f5c8e2f1b2e0b08ac65797e6291116ff4123cb7da0c8457dabb