Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T21:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 21:35 UTC
Open price
$66,517.44
Close price
$66,410.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66517.440000 and closed at 66410.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 15 · 21:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 21:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↓ 21:15 ↓ — now 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T21:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 21:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
21:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01girXNw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.27%
Down 52.73%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000582 sigma=0.001652 score=-1.5365 p_up=0.4727

Commitment hash
fdb731738b915e40759aa795ce869608e2e17ca99403806c1ec8ee19cf6ebf74
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
21:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQ9dwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.5%
Down 51.5%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.5365 edge=-0.0273 sigma_short=0.001909 sigma_long=0.002103 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4850

Commitment hash
6cbcf3a47826826fa826e22ab5ab5360d0c4c225b84a0771525c84de82bb2eff
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
21:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYj9VRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.62%
Down 47.38%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66819.6990 sigma=221.9528 z=-1.3504 p_up=0.5262

Commitment hash
e153096dc91a6d0bd05925eb0f24c4b8a48f830d9e77131af39766957c26d155