Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T22:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 22:50 UTC
Open price
$66,162.01
Close price
$66,296.13

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66162.010000 and closed at 66296.130000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 15 · 22:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 22:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 22:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↑ — now 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 22:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T22:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 22:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPWbor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.77%
Down 47.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66640.9135 sigma=172.1024 z=-1.6089 p_up=0.5277

Commitment hash
4422b46ceed70000778d07963053f136130c8d3198eef53e32d476f4070286f7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
22:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCXJbw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.12%
Down 51.88%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0549 edge=-0.0235 sigma_short=0.000745 sigma_long=0.001968 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4812

Commitment hash
390c62507d0e77ed0fd7991e7745bb0e08d12912817d94293a71ff5c8a6bb3fb
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.548 -4.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLxpVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.65%
Down 52.35%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000359 sigma=0.001483 score=-1.0549 p_up=0.4765

Commitment hash
7a30c06cf8d90ef227d064ed4967f91d9deeccb24d3c1c025cdc2e500b2400b1