Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T22:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 22:35 UTC
Open price
$66,364.01
Close price
$66,162.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66364.010000 and closed at 66162.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 15 · 22:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 22:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 22:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↓ — now 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 22:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T22:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 22:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.451 +4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSGd8opr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.48%
Down 52.52%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000417 sigma=0.001492 score=-1.2197 p_up=0.4748

Commitment hash
387731e29643e3cdb113b67dc6efe86556e3c6a6d88716ada8317307be5c6993
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
22:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.461 +3.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72Hp8MD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.99%
Down 52.01%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.2197 edge=-0.0252 sigma_short=0.001269 sigma_long=0.001971 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4799

Commitment hash
b7021ceee93375e342e2da47d26d7f1c9db2d05c1696951853f1c95a988832d8
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.558 -5.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTOYOw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.83%
Down 47.17%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66667.5460 sigma=168.3641 z=-1.7783 p_up=0.5283

Commitment hash
71f60d30344def8a6dfd366c65732711b586ad88e3d31bc68be921e67de8e777