Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T22:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 23:05 UTC
Open price
$66,296.00
Close price
$66,206.34

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66296.000000 and closed at 66206.340000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
53%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 15 · 22:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 22:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ — now 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T22:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 23:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh76eojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.24%
Down 52.76%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000571 sigma=0.001562 score=-1.5944 p_up=0.4724

Commitment hash
7f98d86b4e263e4fef2c3c2526c1777f66d6e081f4f7299732ad1dd05f6e90d3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
22:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.457 +4.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbdawJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.79%
Down 52.21%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.5944 edge=-0.0276 sigma_short=0.001024 sigma_long=0.002026 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4779

Commitment hash
a641ef3a8ec86d2cd893f347627544991b8d08a2841364d3f21ef6f0659ac153
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
22:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc3vJVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.94%
Down 47.06%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66608.1135 sigma=196.0680 z=-2.2752 p_up=0.5294

Commitment hash
1f29990febfcb943ead3de2bf0e66afcc257991305fc73981a02888cb7243082