Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T20:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 20:20 UTC
Open price
$66,615.98
Close price
$66,557.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66615.980000 and closed at 66557.990000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 15 · 19:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 20:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:15 ↓ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↓ — now 20:15 ↑ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↓ 21:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T20:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 20:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
19:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTGY2VRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.32%
Down 49.68%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.1949 edge=0.0058 sigma_short=0.001910 sigma_long=0.002109 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5032

Commitment hash
b9498b9611505d26d1d5c94cc341d66320d83b7a893d138113384340f78130f1
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHX51D3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.58%
Down 49.42%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000103 sigma=0.002304 score=0.1949 p_up=0.5058

Commitment hash
506aa2bc85f68b56a4d36d95dfd108fa66cf985463f39972711d83d12e28d970
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T2EOo7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.86%
Down 48.14%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66880.4335 sigma=217.7252 z=-0.7277 p_up=0.5186

Commitment hash
c9b8b6a20e87d07125a36e62651aca3805f3efadec31fc7a0c034645350959ba