Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T19:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 19:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 19:35 UTC
Open price
$66,853.99
Close price
$66,530.54

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66853.990000 and closed at 66530.540000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.3
Opens
Jun 15 · 19:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 19:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 19:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:30 ↓ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↓ — now 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↑ 20:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 19:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T19:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 19:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpri49koPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.01%
Down 48.99%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66852.0120 sigma=244.6588 z=-0.3511 p_up=0.5101

Commitment hash
257700607e49a0386fcfc48d9bb020d13f4b3e11abdeb9f552bd9e9c56e20ada
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
19:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.525 -2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Gl39jP8konj6smYboOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.26%
Down 48.74%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.5805 edge=0.0157 sigma_short=0.001225 sigma_long=0.001914 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5126

Commitment hash
c8637292e0ba23d43b1680c33ba90677dd9f8859297601c91b50d953b94d7bd5
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
19:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHqz5wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 19:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.57%
Down 48.43%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000256 sigma=0.001923 score=0.5805 p_up=0.5157

Commitment hash
06a176de1cd674cd04f4dd94ad52e91fce2baeb0ef78181c863b373a74e0756a