Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T18:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 18:50 UTC
Open price
$66,826.43
Close price
$66,803.45

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66826.430000 and closed at 66803.450000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 15 · 18:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 18:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↑ 18:30 ↓ — now 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↓ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T18:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 18:50:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
18:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCmdaoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.82%
Down 50.18%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000030 sigma=0.002186 score=-0.0596 p_up=0.4982

Commitment hash
706e371af19f228a10bfa1c79c35e396f593d035b1a6f026117fbf527dc63df1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
18:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.498 +0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTOXgw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.9%
Down 50.1%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0596 edge=-0.0018 sigma_short=0.002281 sigma_long=0.001948 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4990

Commitment hash
6f383ed3659dc7b7df6488a5986b0c16774e5ab74a9e28b1af446fdaf8a8e9f7
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
18:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSG1Xopr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.24%
Down 49.76%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66825.3395 sigma=265.9098 z=-0.0803 p_up=0.5024

Commitment hash
393ebaf73a5d20d08714eb8d609e5fa192de21dc3b0f16d835f7dbd75ba52856