Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T18:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 18:20 UTC
Open price
$66,851.80
Close price
$66,803.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66851.800000 and closed at 66803.990000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 15 · 17:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 18:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↑ 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↓ — now 18:15 ↑ 18:30 ↓ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 18:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T18:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 18:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
17:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYzYolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.13%
Down 50.87%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66801.6580 sigma=275.0518 z=0.2994 p_up=0.4913

Commitment hash
515709f5481583b984fe59ec5c94a3021500f59f92d09b4320d612ddcbca3c67
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
17:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHqr5wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.47%
Down 49.53%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4787 edge=0.0134 sigma_short=0.002540 sigma_long=0.001951 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5047

Commitment hash
9410f811318bfb9d0d2ca38c8424c22ac329b452a6e538c7508483bbcc8f46f7
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
17:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyNGDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.34%
Down 48.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000253 sigma=0.002302 score=0.4787 p_up=0.5134

Commitment hash
38bd106421421d3573acf559a2663b6b010809e1d1e97216a0cf7a4741e63a5b