Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T17:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 17:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 18:05 UTC
Open price
$66,884.01
Close price
$66,851.79

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66884.010000 and closed at 66851.790000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 15 · 17:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 17:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:00 ↓ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↑ 17:45 ↓ — now 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↑ 18:30 ↓ 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T17:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 18:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
17:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01girpgw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.61%
Down 50.39%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66780.9575 sigma=283.5238 z=0.1307 p_up=0.4961

Commitment hash
fa7abfe2466f72e4e85dd96251fb6922929cea1f722fb2cfe212e6b9dd14462e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
17:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.516 -1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYRnVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.79%
Down 49.21%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.5184 edge=0.0143 sigma_short=0.002532 sigma_long=0.002029 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5079

Commitment hash
5896355f51e7b6de07e3a78bacbb5d68c56ea96da5fcc2af4246e45c10f19655
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
17:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFbGrw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 17:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 17:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.43%
Down 48.57%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000275 sigma=0.002311 score=0.5184 p_up=0.5143

Commitment hash
e92b487d3b988815d1376be83c130019ae13de758d9a2d3f50833883180cfdac