Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T03:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 03:35 UTC
Open price
$65,810.01
Close price
$65,980.46

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65810.010000 and closed at 65980.460000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 03:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 03:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 03:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↑ — now 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 03:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T03:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 03:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXuW72VeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.95%
Down 47.05%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66212.8160 sigma=193.1020 z=-2.4382 p_up=0.5295

Commitment hash
cbb2dad4d806b050154cc40f449384b606f93c398f730ff39a9805a4542e5184
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
03:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GC6Q0wW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.17%
Down 50.83%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0696 edge=-0.0237 sigma_short=0.002299 sigma_long=0.001814 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4917

Commitment hash
2b57db98eb61978f88d57c1bd5f6f17ce889dee4240e57c1e03f6321a32cb079
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.548 -4.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxNbV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.63%
Down 52.37%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000496 sigma=0.002020 score=-1.0696 p_up=0.4763

Commitment hash
b906df35c6fcd4176469b7eae8ea8f153806037feb4c6be01a748cb22751fa32